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Beto ramps up attack but still 6 points back of Abbott in Texas

by Jacob Fuller

Willie R. Tubbs, FISM News

 

No matter the outcome of the Texas gubernatorial race, no one will be able to accuse Democrat Beto O’Rourke of not giving it his all. However, if recent polls are to be believed, he will be convicted of having lost another nationally prominent race.

Whether one takes national or regional polls as evidence, the outlook for O’Rourke is bleak.

In its most recent likely voter sampling, the University of Texas at Tyler pollsters found Republican incumbent Greg Abbott enjoys a six-point lead over O’Rourke with 50% of likely voters polled saying they’d support Abbott compared to 44% for O’Rourke.

“Texans are ready to vote early to protect our energy industry, secure our border, & ensure the Lone Star State remains the BEST state in the BEST nation in the world,” Abbott tweeted after a visit to the west-central city of Abilene.

Abbott has reason to be enthusiastic. While the UT-Tyler poll has him comfortably ahead, national statistics site FiveThirtyEight has Abbott as a virtual shoo-in, winning in 97-of-100 simulations.

O’Rourke has tried numerous strategies to better his chances in the Lone Star State, up to and including interrupting a press briefing in the immediate aftermath of the Uvalde school shooting. More recently, as reported by My San Antonio, O’Rourke has enlisted the help of actor Will Ferrell in a door-to-door canvassing effort.

In his latest effort to stimulate positive momentum, O’Rourke has gone all-in on abortion and is running a new attack ad claiming Abbott, who riled the left when he signed a heartbeat bill into law even before the fall of Roe v. Wade, is a danger to women.

“Greg Abbott’s extreme abortion ban is threatening the lives of Texas women as he allows our state to lead much of the developed world in the rate of maternal mortality,” O’Rourke tweeted.

O’Rourke, who has previously failed in election bids for Senate and the presidency, was in the Rio Grande Valley Monday and accused Abbott of being too extreme for even conservatives. For evidence, he trotted out a woman who identified herself as being Catholic, pro-life, and aligned with O’Rourke.

“This pro-life Catholic in Midland [Texas] is with us because Greg Abbott’s dangerous abortion ban with no exception for rape or incest is just too extreme,” O’Rouke tweeted.

 

O’Rourke’s tactic suggests he understands he can’t win the election on a strictly pro-choice platform and must appeal to the center in a last-ditch hope to sway voters.

The problem for O’Rourke is that, according to the UT-Tyler poll, abortion ranks a distance third in terms of what respondents feel is the most pressing issue facing the state.

Twenty-eight percent of respondents listed border security as the No. 1 concern, followed by the economy (20%) at No. 2.

Abbott clearly feels he has an edge on border security and has tweeted about his successes on both his campaign and official gubernatorial Twitter accounts.

“Texas has done more than any state in HISTORY to secure our border,” Abbott tweeted above a promotional video.

Reproductive rights and gun rights were tied in third and represented the key concern for 10% of respondents apiece. These numbers require some context.

The survey’s designers used separate categories for reproductive rights and abortion, and 5% of respondents listed the latter as a chief concern. However, even when combined, the two categories are still 13 percentage points behind border security.

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