Lauren Moye, FISM News
Two recent polls show that Democrats are in hot water as they lose crucial support among key demographics, including their own registered voters. Additionally, support is down from independent voters and women at a time when Republicans are gaining strong favor among the Hispanic population.
The latest Rasmussen Reports poll found that 48% of voters would support the Republican candidate if the mid-term elections were held today, compared to 39% who would vote Democrat. Nine percent remain unsure.
Last week, Republican support was the same but 40% would vote for the Democratic party compared with only 8% of poll respondents saying they were undecided. The 1-point shift from Democrat to undecided shows the waning support that the blue party faces within their own demographic.
Rasmussen noted that this week’s 8-point lead “on the congressional ballot is due both to greater GOP partisan intensity and a 17-point advantage among independents. While 86% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, only 78% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate.”
Independent voter support for Democrats has also fallen in just one week. On June 3, 43% said they would vote for the GOP compared to 28% who would vote for Democrats. As of Friday’s poll, 44% would vote red compared to only 27% who voiced support for the blue party. Only 19% of independent voters say they are undecided.
Another significant change from week to week is a closing “gender gap” as Democrats lose ground amongst women. Three weeks ago, there was a 9-point disparity between male and female voters. That dropped to six points last week. On Friday, it was now only a 3-point difference with 50% of men and 47% of women saying they would vote for Republican congressional candidates.
One notable statistic is the strong support for the GOP among voters who earn $30,000 and $50,000 annually. While Democrats may tout themselves as the party of the working class, this demographic has some of the strongest support for Republican candidates compared to Democrats of any category with a 52% to 34% polling difference.
While Democrats lose ground in key categories, Republicans are also enjoying an increase in favor among Hispanics. Last week the left-of-center Quinnipiac University poll found that 41% of Latinos want to see Republican candidates in Congress compared to the 38% who want Democrats in those same seats.
In the last mid-terms, this demographic voted overwhelmingly blue with Pew Research estimating that “69% of Latinos voted for the Democratic candidate” in 2018. Meanwhile, Pew Research also found that Biden enjoyed a 59% majority of this voter bloc in 2020. Since Biden’s inauguration, support has dropped significantly for both the president and his party.
FISM has followed the decline of Democratic support among Hispanics. In December, a Wall Street poll found that voters in this demographic were just as likely to vote for a Republican as they were a Democrat with 37% of respondents in each category. In May, a Quinnipiac poll found that 60% of Hispanics disapproved of the president’s job performance. The hemorrhaging support has been potentially attributed to a strong 69% disapproval of the White House response to issues at the Mexican border.
There are 149 days remaining until the mid-term elections on Nov. 8.