Chris Lange, FISM News
Thousands of Russian troops are now holding massive drills in Belarus at the borders of Poland and Lithuania and along its southern flank near Ukraine in what could be the largest military exercises since the Cold War, representing yet another escalation in the standoff between Moscow and Western powers.
The Russian military on Thursday released a video showing the movement of tanks, soldiers firing weapons, jet fighters taking off, and missile systems being deployed.
Russia🇷🇺 and Belarus🇧🇾 Begin Massive Military Exercises. #geopolitics pic.twitter.com/UnWAOlTK1A
— Ponderwall (@ponderwall) February 10, 2022
Moscow claims the drills are in response to provocation from the West that threatens its own security. Western officials, however, fear the drills are an indicator that Russia is planning to weaken Ukraine’s defenses by launching a multidirectional attack, as Belarus shares 700 miles of border with Ukraine.
Moscow, which maintains it isn’t planning an invasion, has massed over 100,000 troops in southern Russia and on the Crimean Peninsula, which it seized in 2014, effectively surrounding Ukraine. The Kremlin recently announced that it will conduct naval exercises later this month and has already deployed warships to the Black Sea.
Kyiv responded to the Russian drills Thursday by launching its own military exercises involving drones and anti-tank weapons provided by NATO members Turkey and the U.K. while President Volodymr Zelensky denounced Moscow’s latest aggression as an attempt to exert psychological pressure on Ukraine.
Neither country has disclosed the number of troops participating in the drills, but Russia’s Defense Ministry claims the number does not exceed the 9,000 troop limits set by a 2011 agreement with Europe. The U.S. and NATO, however, believe the number is closer to 30,000.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated the White House’s position that Russia could attack Ukraine “at any time,” including during the ongoing Winter Games taking place in Beijing.
We’re in a window when an invasion could begin at any time, and to be clear, that includes during the Olympics. Simply put, we continue to see very troubling signs of Russian escalation, including new forces arriving at the Ukrainian border.
Blinken made the remark early Friday at a press conference in Melbourne, Australia.
The Beijing games end Feb. 20, coinciding with the date both Russia and Ukraine have said their respective military drills will end.
Military analysts say satellite imagery and open-source data shows that Moscow has deployed SU-25 and SU-35 jet fighters, electronic jamming systems, nuclear-capable Iskander missile systems and S-400 surface-to-air missile systems to Belarus, which shares a 700-mile border with Ukraine, according to reporting by The Wall Street Journal.
“This is clearly more than a readiness exercise,” said Rob Lee, an expert on the Russian military and fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. “At minimum it is coercive—or it is part of preparations for an invasion.”
Analysts also say the late announcement of the drills as well as their timing is out of the ordinary, with Moscow’s military exercises typically occurring in late summer or early fall.
President Biden on Thursday issued yet another warning to Americans in Ukraine to get out immediately in an interview with NBC News anchor Lester Holt.
It’s not like we’re dealing with a terrorist organization. We’re dealing with one of the largest armies in the world. It’s a very different situation, and things could go crazy quickly.
The president also maintained that he has no plans to send U.S. troops into Ukraine.
During a visit to Poland Thursday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that if Russia were to invade Ukraine “there will be bloodshed,” adding, “everybody in Russia must understand that.”