Chris Lange, FISM News
A new poll shows that previously undecided voters are moving toward Republican candidates as the midterm elections head toward the final stretch.
The results from a USA Today/Suffolk University poll released on Thursday show that, on a generic ballot, voters support a Republican congressional candidate over a Democrat by 49%-45%. The shift in voter sentiment from July, which had Democrats leading by 44%-40%, will undoubtedly bolster the GOP’s hopes of taking control of the House in the general election while the chance of the Senate flipping red remains within reach.
“Democratic congressional candidates have held their support since the summer, ticking up 1 percentage point, but most of the 16% of voters who were undecided then have now made up their minds and moved to the GOP,” the USA Today report states.
Cook Political Report Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter told reporters on Thursday that this year’s general election is shaping up to be a “traditional referendum, and that means Democrats losing the House, probably somewhere in the range of 20 seats or more,” MarketWatch reported.
Election forecasting website FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans an 82% chance of winning the House with a prediction that the GOP will see a total net gain of 17 seats. Republicans only need to pick up five seats to gain a majority.
The polls continue to suggest that the Democrats’ focus on abortion in this election cycle has failed, rather spectacularly, to supplant angst about the economy and inflation as the top issue on the minds of Americans.
“Forty-year-high inflation is swaying more potential voters than the end of Roe v. Wade after five decades,” USA Today’s Jim Sergent said of the findings.
Asked whether inflation or abortion mattered more to them, 56% of respondents chose inflation while only 40% chose abortion.
More troubling for the Democratic party is the fact that disgruntled Americans increasingly view their votes as a way to send a message to the White House, according to the report.
In terms of the economy, 66% of those surveyed said they believe that the nation is already in a recession or a depression. Just 10% say it’s in recovery, despite President Biden’s repeated reassurances that his administration is making successful inroads to combat soaring prices.
More Hispanic, black voters move toward GOP
The poll also found that the GOP has made “significant inroads” with Hispanic and, more surprisingly, black voters. The Democrats have long counted on the support of both key demographic groups. According to the report, 40% of Hispanics and 21% of Blacks now back GOP candidates.
“The issue of inflation — and the feeling that the White House hasn’t done enough to address it — is helping Republicans score significant inroads among Hispanic and black voters,” the report states.
Battle for Senate tightens but remains ‘toss-up’
Democrats have also lost footing in their comfortable lead against Republicans in the fight for control of the Senate, though nearly every poll has ranked the election as a “toss-up.”
FiveThirtyEight’s model lists the Senate as a “dead heat,” giving Democrats 54-in-100 odds of maintaining their slim majority in the upper chamber, down from 68 in 100 at the end of September.