Willie R. Tubbs, FISM News
For all the Democrats’ efforts to derail former President Donald Trump’s expected push for another term in the White House, the lack of a decisive nationwide shift to the right in the midterm may prove the biggest threat to a reelection bid when all is said and done.
While it would be unwise to write Trump off as substantially damaged or weakened among Republicans – he remains far and away the most popular candidate on the right – the 2022 midterm has revealed a potential problem for the man who hopes to win a second term in 2024.
In the days leading up to the midterm elections, when pundits and journalists were all still generally expecting the long-touted “red wave” to materialize, the prevailing thought was that Trump would use the momentum of a litany of Republican wins to start his campaign.
Things change quickly in politics. With a series of Trump-backed candidates losing in key races and both the House and Senate poised to remain closely divided, the former president is now facing the chance that another Republican candidate could usurp his iron-tight grip on the party.
On Tuesday as voters were heading to the polls, Trump said that he should be absolved of any fault if the red wave didn’t materialize. “Well, I think if they win, I should get all the credit,” Trump declared. “If they lose, I should not be blamed at all, but it’ll probably be just the opposite.”
Wednesday, on Truth Social, Trump sought to do some damage control. He took credit for 219 wins in general elections and blamed the media, specifically the New York Times, for manufacturing the story of his candidates’ struggles.
“While in certain ways yesterday’s election was somewhat disappointing, from my personal standpoint it was a very big victory – 219 WINS and 16 Losses in the General,” Trump wrote. “Who has ever done better than that?”
Overnight Thursday, Trump added, “Incredible how dishonest the Fake News Media is. The Failing New York Times has gone crazy. So many of the people I Endorsed went on to victory on Tuesday Night, nobody was even close, and they literally make up a story refusing to write the facts, and only quoting enemies and losers. Almost all of the people I endorsed WON, yet if you read the story from two Trump hating writers (who only do as they are told!), you would not even recognize the truth.”
Whether or not one agrees with the former president’s assessment of legacy media, it is impossible to overlook a flaw in his calculus. Trump’s problem is not total wins but what those key losses could mean to the balance of power in Congress.
Trump has always run on optimism and appealed to his supporters’ desire to see someone guide the nation back toward traditional values and away from “wokeness.” It becomes difficult to sell oneself as the candidate who will make America tired of winning when one’s own party flounders in a midterm election that was custom-made for major gains.
All is not yet lost for Trump, though. With both the House and Senate still in play, it is still possible that both he and Republicans wind up getting what they wanted from the midterm.
A modest advantage in both the House and Senate would be a major achievement for the right and give Trump the sort of achievement from which he could launch his presidential campaign.
As ever, the fortunes of the modern politician are precarious. Trump’s prospects hinge upon Republicans regaining control of at least the House. Were Democrats to retain both chambers, calamity could ensue.
Not only would Trump’s struggles with the Jan. 6 committee persist – and likely draw him into another court battle – but Republicans would likely start looking for new blood. There is a chance such a search happens regardless of how the midterm plays out.
The only place where a true “red wave” developed was Florida, which despite being home to Trump is a win being widely credited to Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.
While both Trump and DeSantis could claim credit for turning Florida red, it was DeSantis who pushed through conservative-friendly bills, flipped longtime Democratic strongholds, and registered record numbers of new Republicans during his first term as governor.
DeSantis was a threat, perhaps the only legitimate threat, to Trump’s reelection bid long before Election Day; and Trump had begun ramping up his attacks on DeSantis in the runup to the midterm, most notably giving the Florida governor the nickname of “De-Sanctimonious.”
However, with people both inside and outside of the Republican ranks taking notice of just how well DeSantis did in his reelection campaign – and that is a win for which Trump cannot claim credit as he and DeSantis have kept each other at arms length for the better part of a year – Trump has ramped up his efforts to tamp down his fellow Floridian’s standing on the right.
Tuesday, Trump warned DeSantis would be “making a mistake” if he sought the presidency in 2024 and issued a not-so-veiled threat of blackmail were DeSantis to challenge him. Then, on Wednesday, Trump fired another salvo, this time on Truth Social, where he wrote, “Now that the Election in Florida is over, and everything went quite well, shouldn’t it be said that in 2020, I got 1.1 Million more votes in Florida than Ron D got this year, 5.7 Million to 4.6 Million? Just asking?”
Importantly, DeSantis has never publicly stated that he would run in 2024, but even hints of weakness for Trump could open a lane that DeSantis, or any number of other contenders, might seek to fill.