Chris Lange, FISM News
The Census Bureau’s recent acknowledgment of significant errors could have a major impact on congressional appointments and delegations over the next decade, not to mention the 2024 presidential election. The mistakes made heavily favor Democratic states, which could sway the balance of power in Congress.
Last week, The Census Bureau reported miscounts in 14 states in the 2020 census. Notably, overcounts occurred in six Democratic states, among which five voted for Joe Biden in the 2020 election, while six Republican-led states were undercounted, five of which voted for Trump.
Among the overcounted states are Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, and Rhode Island. Undercounted states include Arkansas, Florida, Illinois, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas.
“The ability for any agency to accurately count each person in a nation of 330 million is a logistical challenge, to be sure. However, it is difficult to understand how the Census Bureau missed more than 5 percent of the populations of Arkansas, Delaware and Hawaii,” visiting fellow at the Independent Women’s Voice, Kristin Tate, wrote in a recent op-ed published by The Hill.
Tate points out that an accurate count would have overwhelmingly benefited red states, many of which saw increases in population growth compared to corresponding losses in blue states. Had the Bureau provided accurate numbers, overcounted states stood to lose at least one seat in Congress while undercounted states would likely have gained at least one seat each.
“Considering that Republicans need to flip just five seats to retake Congress, each misplaced seat is crucial,” Tate said.
Among the more egregious errors is an overcount of New York residents by more than 600,000 and a near identical undercount in Texas. Moreover, original census figures showed an increase in New York’s population by 800,000 to 20.2 million when, in fact, its population growth remained relatively unchanged in 2020. Conversely, the Bureau underestimated Florida’s population growth by about half a million. These glaring discrepancies are significant in light of the fact that seat appointments are based on relative growth in a state-by-state comparison.
The inaccuracies also impacted redistricting processes over the past year, affecting both the number of seats and district lines. Tate points out that the loss or gain of a single seat significantly impacts the Electoral College which determines the weight of a state’s votes based on its total number of representatives and senators.
It is highly unlikely that the Census data will be corrected before the 2024 presidential election. Tate points out that the Supreme Court in 1999 ruled that revised and more accurate numbers could not be considered in determining congressional seat counts.
“Since almost every error benefited Democrats, the risk of undermining trust in the Census Bureau and the election is significant,” Tate wrote. “The only potential life-preserver for the GOP is that the current Supreme Court could consider a challenge based on the accurate figure. As of now, no challenge exists — and the time to file one is rapidly running out,” she added.