Ian Patrick, FISM News
The recall election against California Governor Gavin Newsom is nearing its end with only one week to go before voting takes place.
In the last few days and weeks, Newsom and his challengers have been making the rounds in the state to try and bolster votes for themselves. The Republican candidates include San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, businessman John Cox, state assemblyman Kevin Kiley, former Olympian Caitlyn Jenner (formerly Bruce Jenner), former U.S. Rep. Doug Ose, and conservative radio host Larry Elder.
According to a poll from the Trafalgar Group, voters seem to favor conservative radio host Larry Elder over the other Republican candidates making him the likeliest replacement.
If you ask Newsom himself, he would say that his removal would guarantee Elder’s induction into the governor position. While campaigning for the Latino vote, Newsom said: “Either we vote ‘no’ on this recall or in a matter of weeks the next governor in the state of California is Larry Elder.” Newsom has focused on Elder due to the latter’s immense popularity since he announced his candidacy for governor.
However, recent polls also suggest that Newsom may not be leaving his post. The same Trafalgar Group study, conducted from September 2 to September 4, shows that almost 53% of likely ballot casters would vote to keep Newsom in office while just over 43% would vote to kick him out.
#CARecall – @GavinNewsom to remain, by nearly double digits.
No, keep him 52.8%,
Yes, remove him 43.1%,
Unsure 4.1%,While @larryelder plurality lead grows if recall succeeds – according to @trafalgar_group #CA #Recall #Poll conducted 9/2-4 See Report: https://t.co/izYQ0EtDTe pic.twitter.com/RRhC25rLAC
— The Trafalgar Group (@trafalgar_group) September 5, 2021
Other polls corroborate the majority’s desire to keep Newsom in office. Data from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) shows that 58% of ballot casters would vote to keep Newsom today, compared to the 39% who would kick him out. Their data set also suggests that the support for Newsom has been slowly climbing since March of this year, when support in keeping the current governor was at 56%.
However, according to the same data set from PPIC, the perception of the government from California citizens varies. In September of this year, only 47% of citizens say the state is headed in the right direction making it the second lowest marker in the data during Newsom’s tenure. According to PPIC, “Just over half of those in the San Francisco Bay Area say things are going in the right direction, compared to fewer than half elsewhere.”
Similarly, Newsom’s approval rating is slowly dropping according to the PPIC data set. In September, only 53% of citizens approved of his job compared to 55% in May of this year.